EXTERNAL GEOPOLITICAL SHOCKS AND DOMESTIC FRAGILITY: THE SECURITY AND ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF US–ISRAEL–IRAN MILITARY TENSIONS FOR NIGERIA

Abstract

This paper examines the economic and security implications of US–Israel–Iran escalations for Nigeria, highlighting how distant conflicts generate external shocks that affect vulnerable peripheral states. Anchored on Great Power Competition Theory the study explains how rivalries among major powers transmit economic and security risks across regions. Using thematic analysis and content analysis of policy documents, the study identifies key transmission mechanisms through which Middle Eastern tensions affect Nigeria. Findings reveal that volatility in global oil markets constitutes the primary economic pathway, influencing government revenue, forex stability, inflation, and fiscal planning due to Nigeria’s reliance on crude exports. Additionally, disruptions to maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz increase shipping costs and global trade uncertainty, indirectly affecting Nigeria’s economy. From a security perspective, the study identifies spillover effects including terrorism financing networks, arms proliferation, maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea, and emerging cyber threats. The paper also reveals policy and institutional gaps in Nigeria’s economic and security frameworks, particularly the limited integration of geopolitical risk assessment into national planning. The study recommends economic diversification, strengthened intelligence coordination, enhanced maritime and border security, and establishment of geopolitical risk assessment mechanisms to improve Nigeria’s resilience to external geopolitical shocks.