TRANSLATING EVIDENCE INTO POLICY: A TRANSITIONAL SETTLEMENT FRAMEWORK FOR IDPS IN NORTH-CENTRAL NIGERIA

Abstract

Internal displacement has become a persistent humanitarian and development challenge in North-Central Nigeria, where recurrent farmer–herder conflicts, communal violence, and climate-related disasters have resulted in prolonged displacement and inadequate living conditions among internally displaced persons (IDPs). Despite the adoption of Nigeria’s National Policy on Internally Displaced Persons and the ratification of the African Union Kampala Convention, gaps remain in the implementation of sustainable resettlement and durable solutions. This study developed an evidence-based Transitional Settlement Framework (TSF) for internally displaced persons in North-Central Nigeria by translating empirical evidence into actionable resettlement policy. Specifically, the study examined the influence of housing adequacy on living conditions, assessed the effect of overcrowding, determined spatial variations in living conditions across Benue State, Plateau State, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), evaluated institutional coordination and camp management practices, and developed a framework for sustainable resettlement planning. A mixed-methods research design was adopted. The quantitative component involved 480 household heads, comprising 160 respondents each from Benue State, Plateau State, and the FCT, while qualitative data were obtained through key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and field observations involving relevant stakeholders. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, multiple linear regression, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) with Tukey’s post hoc test, and thematic analysis at a 5% level of significance. Findings revealed that housing adequacy significantly influenced the living conditions of IDPs (β = 0.584, R² = 0.341, F(1,478) = 247.163, p < 0.001), explaining 34.1% of the variation in living conditions. Overcrowding also had a significant negative effect on living conditions (β = −0.542, t = −13.958, p < 0.001), indicating that increasing overcrowding was associated with poorer welfare outcomes. Significant spatial variations were observed, with Plateau State recording the highest mean living condition score (M = 3.48, SD = 0.512), followed by the FCT (M = 3.02, SD = 0.485) and Benue State (M = 2.84, SD = 0.521). Institutional assessment further revealed weaknesses in government coordination, transparency in aid distribution, IDP participation in decision-making, and government–NGO coordination, although NGO service delivery and responsiveness to complaints received relatively higher ratings. Based on the empirical and qualitative evidence, the study developed a four-pillar Transitional Settlement Framework comprising structural shelter upgrading, density-sensitive spatial planning, multi-level institutional coordination, and durability and exit planning. The study concludes that sustainable improvement in IDP welfare requires a shift from emergency-driven humanitarian responses towards evidence-based resettlement planning that integrates adequate housing, effective spatial management, coordinated institutional action, and durable settlement strategies.